Lesson 5: GC / GOLD Sell Orders

Key Strategy Concepts

Setup: Value Area High + Equal Highs + Round Number

• Price created value area high with equal highs in a fresh area
• Maximum level around 1845-1850 = institutional round number
• When institutions create a value area high, that's likely the highest price will go

Reading the Institutional Intent

• Questions to ask at the level:
  1. What's happening with limit orders in the DOM?
  2. What's happening on the footprint?
  3. Where are we in the market structure?
  4. What's the highest point?

The Three-Attempt Pattern

• First attempt: Equal highs created, nothing interesting on delta (low delta) → skip
• Second attempt: Sellers move to downside, but not a huge move → not ready yet
• Third attempt: THIS is where the whale order appears
  • Sellers on the ask side with extreme imbalance
  • 12 over 21 = ~35 contracts on the ask side
  • Delta shifted: positive spike → decreasing → negative → increasing negative
  • Large sell order triggered on the ask

Delta Pattern for Gold Sells

1. Positive delta spike (the last push up)
2. Delta starts decreasing
3. Large negative delta appears
4. Delta numbers: -27, -19, -2, -13, -8 (increasing negative)
5. Big volume in the market + huge negative delta = sign of seller STRENGTH

Last Test Pattern

• Map out the candle of interest (the one with the whale orders)
• Draw the zone covering the highest wicks (12 over, 21 over on ask)
• Price tests this level one LAST time
• After the last test → break of structure to the downside
• Price NEVER comes back to the highest point — orders filled, game over

Target Setting

• Target 1: Value area low (matching the low area)
• Target 2: Next equal lows below
• Draw two horizontal lines = two psychological targets
• Gold moves from value area highs to value area lows — large ranges

Key Insight: Why the Third Attempt Matters

• First two attempts: institutions are placing limit orders, building position
• Third attempt: orders are fully loaded, ready to dump
• The move on the third attempt is MUCH larger than the first two
• "They were just ready to create value area high areas, to tank orders in the market"

Gold-Specific Behavior

• When large orders fill on gold, price falls for a BIG range
• Value area highs to value area lows = the full move
• Volume comparison: last test has MUCH bigger volume than earlier tests