Lesson 6: GC Extreme Imbalance — 300 Contracts on the Ask

Key Strategy Concepts

Setup: London Open + Value Area High + Equal Highs

• Gold moves hardest during London and NY sessions
• NY sometimes harder (USD-related)
• Value area highs + equal highs + market profile confirmation

Two-Attempt Pattern on Gold

• First attempt at equal highs: small imbalance (8 over 0, 9 over, 15 over on ask)
  • Small push for 15-20 pips (84 to 82 level)
  • Not bad but gold can do more — need to wait for bigger move
• Second attempt (the LAST test): EXTREME imbalance appears
  • 160 + 87 + 32 = ~300 contracts traded on the ask side
  • Result: 80-90 pip dump during London session (85 to 77-78)

Gold Behavior Warning

• Gold is NOT like EUR or GBP — it can wipe you out
• Safe Haven: big investors dump money in = heavy forces on ask/bid
• Be aware of behavior in price — wait for the real move

Delta Confirmation Pattern

1. Small delta numbers on first test (not interesting)
2. On the real test: delta goes from positive to BIG negative
3. Saw 22 over 0 on the BID (long order into the high — the trap)
4. Then the whale orders appeared on the ASK (300 contracts)
5. Delta flipped hard negative → price dumps

Retail vs Institutional View

• Retail sees: "Break of structure" or "break and retest" to the upside
• Institutional view: Limit orders on the DOM (right side) + 300 market orders on footprint
• The "breakout" is a FAILURE — a liquidity grab
• You cannot see this on TradingView or any retail platform — only on footprint

Two Trade Opportunities

• Trade 1: Right at the extreme imbalance (300 contracts at highs)

  • Enter after the whale dump
  • SL above the imbalance
  • TP at value area low (80-90 pips)

• Trade 2: On the retest/pullback after the initial dump

  • Price retests the imbalance level from below
  • Saw 28 + 16 + 15 + 10 = ~70 contracts on ask again
  • Another 70-pip move to the downside
  • Target: value area low from market profile

Target: Value Area Low

• Take 60-70-80% profit at value area low
• Value area low has its own imbalance (6 over 0 on bid, 9 on ask, 16 on ask)
• That's WHY price reacts at that level — historical imbalance creates the floor

Contract Threshold Summary for Gold

| Level | Contracts on Ask | Expected Move | |-------|-----------------|---------------| | Small signal | 15-20 contracts | 15-20 pips | | Medium signal | 50-70 contracts | 40-70 pips | | EXTREME signal | 150-300 contracts | 80-90+ pips |