Topic 27: The Weekly Timeframe and Lower Timeframe Imbalance (Video)

Content Type: Video only (22:20) — Full transcript extracted

Video Transcript

Happy Sunday team. Hope everyone is doing fine and being well. Since the recordings back on the recordings again. You were study NAS from the view — will give you my vision from last week and my thoughts about upcoming week. We'll do it pretty simplistic.

Majority of the time I starting off from the weekly time frame to see where are we in the market and where we can expect the price push through, you know. I've been selling US30 for months now — has been a couple of months and everything the time I sell more than I buy. Why? If you're looking on the weekly perspective or even if you should go to the higher time frames, you can see that this is a simple sellers market right here. This was a bias Market, you know — that was from last year August to back in 2020.

But that being said, from for now this specific asset is definitely overall sellers market. Of course, we see the pull backs from the buyers. Mapping out the lows and highs on the weekly timeframe to get a little bias, you know — get a perspective in the market. I think it's pretty important to map out your higher time frame levels, you know.

Simple to set — if we checking out on weekly perspective you can see we had a Supply level right here, which was a weekly Supply level. And that higher time frame levels are really really strong levels — those institutions know exactly where they buy, where they sell, you know, the massive orders — complete story. I will not explain again, but you know — as you have learned in the course, they drive price to certain price levels where they push price to and where they are willing to buy at or sell at — good levels, you know.

So yeah, August and July was simple and bias — overall nice bias move. But every counting the mid August till now two months, it's again a seller's main. Majority of the time its sellers, you know. So in this conditions I'm looking for imbalances, supply/demand levels on the lower timeframes to ride this high time frame bias, you know.

In this condition you could aim for the monthly levels imbalances to push the price forward into your weekly highs and lows. But this leg was a sellish leg and if he's shifting to the lower timeframes — the Daily, 12 hours stuff like that — you can see that we definitely had a nice level right here, you know.

Check out the daily level — that level, weekly level that I explained it, you know. And we pushed in this level and then we rejected this level. Okay pretty big level. But just to give you an idea — this line will represent the same stuff. You know, it's based on that Supply area up front on the weekly. Let's daily time frame — this is why the price moved from buying to selling, you know.

And in a condition right this — especially for US30, I do love the M30 and M15 levels. They are pretty strong and accurate and especially around the New York opening. Massive levels, you know. The real big moves you will find around the New York open, you know 9:30 time. 9:30 is New York open — in Europe we have different time zones that is around 15:30, you know. So that is when the stock markets opening, you know — Dow Jones, you know stuff like that.

So if you're looking in front of you — you can see I have the discharge, you know. This is simpler — the weekly levels that you see in front of you, high and lows. And yeah, hourly, M30 and M15 imbalance levels — majority the time they're matching up pretty nicely and accurate with a nice leg out and stuff like that, you know — complete story. You already know.

So before the New York opening I would like to see how the London will set up. The London or the Asia before that session usually make that imbalance for the New York to trade off. So you see the correction to that M15/M30 imbalance level — where the New York is grabbing that liquidity and where they tank those orders in lows or highs — that story about the weekly timeframe, you know.

For example right here you can see this was hourly — I think it was yeah — an hourly level right here. You can see we have two levels exactly. You can see this imbalance right here and this level right here. And even on the lower time frames is a valid area and you can see how the London session traded into this level. And the sooner if you look into the downside — 11:30, 21 of September — you can see that the price is trading around this level and we coming around the 15:30 opening. And an hour after the 15:30 existing turn you can see that nice grip of orders right here within this level, which is a valid liquidity move.

As you can see right here — push price hardly into the high area Supply area and then tanker to the downside with the break of structure to the downside, you know. So this is simple liquidity grab, you know, in the fresh imbalance which is created on the 20th of September, you know.

And again check out 20 September at 9:00 in the morning around the London session. So this imbalance candle on the M15 — that is that candle like I explained it from that London session. So there's a fresh imbalance level and then price trading away from it. And when price trade back to this level, we see that liquidity spike, you know — that grab of orders on the footprint and the order flow tools. You can see that pretty nicely, you know. We work with very Advanced tools based on the institution, you know.

And you can see how price grab that liquidity in form of delta. So you are able to read the Delta. You can see the real volume. You can snipe it on the footprint chart, you know. It's not a Holy Grail, but it gives you a little bit more opportunity to look into the market — what is really happening around that New York open, you know.

Sometimes US30 has the majority of the time the US30/NAS moves the biggest like I said from 9:30 (15:30 Europe time) around the opening. And that is where you see that liquidity spikes. But London session have sometimes also nice levels.

For example, I will show you a little example right here. For example, we have the M15 imbalance right here. And we know we have that London imbalance right here. So this is a little tiny range if you compare this with the New York range, but it's not impossible, you know, to trade this move to the upside. But be aware of that big imbalance levels on the M15 and M30 even hourly match up — like I said, it's three times imbalance level right here. So matching up on multiple timeframes.

But be aware of that levels if the heading down to the New York opening because that is where those big guys — that big orders will push price to and then tank those orders into the markets again.

If you're trading Supply and Demand already — I mean if you trading Supply and Demand only based on the supply and demand stuff, you already know about imbalances and the leg out and stuff like that. If you haven't done the order flow course, I can recommend it to have, you know.

Price ranges: I also do gold every now and then, you know. Gold has some certain moves as well. Only US30 is less more aggressive and less to trade, you know — it's way more simpler. But you have to understand the price range and the session you trade on. If you compare it with gold — gold is still one of my favorites, that liquidity move — but it is pretty aggressive to trade. And you also fundamental wise, you know, it's pretty aggressive. But I'm still doing good in gold. But US30 gives me bigger price ranges, you know.

And the pushes on US30 are really big swing pushes. But it's not really swing trading — it's more like a day trade, you know. And sometimes I have three, four hundred points in less than an hour. Sometimes I'm in a trade for two hours, you know. The price range on this are amazing.

Last week: on that M30 imbalance — it was M30 right here, M30 imbalance simple or continuation to the downside, which was a London move. That's what I tried to explain you — majority of the time the big shifts, the big moves are usually around the New York session but London moves as well.

So you can see that Asia imbalance right here which price traded in, broke structure to the downside and we continued to the downside for pretty well. Mapping out the lower timeframes you understand what I mean. And how price moves and moves and moves back to the weekly.

We now coming into a weekly level that will not mean that price will shoot up for a thousand points again. It's possible — we did it back in the days as well. But understanding the structure of price — so what I mean, if you looking to — you clean up the chart a little bit. So if you looking for that continuation or that shift, you know — do not simply buy because we are on a weekly low. Let price change structure. So if we do reject this level for now, it looks like price will continue. But let's see — wait for that structure change on the lower time frame. So that means that we have to see how price will respond — do we gonna change structure to the downside? Do we gonna create more Demand right now or do we gonna continue our way to the downside, you know? That is important.

That is really important to understand the price in that manner. We do have two pretty nice imbalance levels right here. But I will not be too quick because the Monday is usually the startup of the engine, you know. So I would like to see how the London will create that imbalance levels and that gives me insights hints how the price will probably continue on Monday, New York.

Or, you know, the next day for example. So I don't have to trade exactly on the Monday — if I trade around the Monday, it's usually around the New York opening because first of all, that's my session, you know.

And if I have the time to watch the London session as well, I probably will do that. But usually my plan stays one to two trades a day. If I'm able to — if I have the time for it because we're in multiple businesses as well, you know.

It's important to trade around that, you know. Usually last week I had probably three trades in total. I think was three trades — two winners, one break even. And it happens to the best of us, that's fine, you know. Having now and then I lose a trade as well. But to do one thing at the time, at one certain price, at one certain time zone, with the same stuff over and over again — you can create a routine, a habit, and you know, your win rate will be Sky High. You know, I think you can easily win around 70 to 80 to 90 percent if you execute like this, you know. And you are not hopping from trade to trade and buying like a madman, you know.

For upcoming week — don't be too quick. We have strong sellers, you know. If you changing the direction — wait for pretty good change of structure, you know. Otherwise go over that supply/imbalances, you know — simple as that.

And yeah, hope this helps. Was a little talking — 20 minutes of talking and expressing myself. Hope it helps, you know. And we keep in touch — on to the next. Much love. Peace out, Kev.

Key Takeaway for Bot

• Start from weekly timeframe to determine overall bias (sellers/buyers market)
• Weekly supply/demand levels are extremely strong — institutions know exactly where to buy/sell
• M15 and M30 imbalance levels are the most accurate for entries
• New York open (9:30 EST / 15:30 EU) = where the biggest moves happen
• London/Asia create the imbalance levels, New York trades off them
• Multi-timeframe confirmation: when M15, M30, and hourly imbalances match up = strong level
• Don't buy just because price is at a weekly low — wait for structure change on lower timeframes
• Monday = startup of the engine. Watch London for setup, trade NY for execution
• 1-2 trades per day maximum, same routine = 70-90% win rate
• Gold is more aggressive but still tradeable. US30 gives bigger, cleaner ranges
• Delta + Volume + Footprint confirm liquidity grabs at imbalance levels