Lesson 2: Gold / GC Sellers to Buyers — Imbalance in Price

Key Strategy Concepts

Setup: Sellers-to-Buyers Flip at Key Levels

• Equal highs / equal lows / value area highs / value area lows
• London to NY session price movements
• Price returns to equal highs from previous day → watch for reaction

Imbalance Detection

• Inside a candle: look at ask vs bid contracts
• Example: 14 contracts on bid vs 39 over 0 on ask = IMBALANCE
• Map out the imbalance zone and draw it forward to the right
• When price returns to this imbalance zone → watch for sellers appearing again

Sell Signal (Return to Imbalance)

• Price returns to equal highs / value area high + imbalance zone
• Sellers appear on the ask side
• Delta shifts from positive (during buy move) to negative (sellers)
• Clusters show deep red: 117 contracts, 5, 7 contracts on ask side (seller side)
• 1-minute timeframe: each cluster = 5 candles, even more ask-side clusters visible
• Negative delta + huge volume spikes = confirmation to sell

Buy Signal (Lows Reversal)

• Price dumps into lows
• Watch the BID side — are buyers appearing?
• Bearish candle at the low was NOT sellers — it was BUYERS being absorbed
• After the sweep: Delta changes, volume increases, 12 contracts on the bid
• Price moves from 75 to 80 level (50 pip move)
• Retail sees "break of structure" — institutions see buyer absorption

Entry Rules

• Aggressive entry: Enter after the absorption candle with tight stop (5-10 pips behind the low)
• If price breaks the imbalance at lows → game over (stop hit)
• If it holds → 50 pips to the upside
• This is probability trading

Key Pattern: Seller-to-Buyer Flip

1. Negative delta (sellers) at lows
2. Volume spike
3. Delta changes to positive
4. Buyers take over on the bid
5. Price moves up aggressively

Gold-Specific Numbers

• 12 contracts on the bid = significant buyer signal at lows
• 39 contracts on ask = significant sell imbalance
• 117 contracts in cluster = institutional selling activity
• 50-pip moves are standard on gold reversals